Luna County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 52th
Luna County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 51.6, 52th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Luna County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 51.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 52nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 117.13 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $335K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.
Beyond physical exposure, Luna County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Luna County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1999, including 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Luna County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 117.13 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $335K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.64 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 52.45 / yr | $230K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.64 / yr | $58K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.14 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $222K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.10 / yr | $513K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $74K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $36 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $23K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $15K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $3 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Luna County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1999, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Biological (2), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| September 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Ice Storms, Flooding and Heavy Rains |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Luna County?
Luna County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 51.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 52th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Luna County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $3M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $335K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Luna County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Luna County ranks #23 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Luna County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Luna County since 1999, most often 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Luna County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.