Sierra County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Sierra County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 55.8, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Sierra County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 55.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $338K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 1.86 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $378K in expected annual loss and about 74.87 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sierra County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Sierra County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Sierra County ranks #22 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $338K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.86 / yr | $9M |
| Drought | Medium | 74.87 / yr | $378K |
| Lightning | Medium | 59.64 / yr | $318K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 5.20 / yr | $45K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.46 / yr | $817 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $326 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $117K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.25 / yr | $114K |
| Hail | Low | 0.22 / yr | $81K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.08 / yr | $281K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $8K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $15K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $928 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sierra County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Extreme Cold Temperatures |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sierra County?
Sierra County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 55.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sierra County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $338K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $9M EAL), Drought (Medium, $378K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sierra County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Sierra County ranks #22 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sierra County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Sierra County since 1972, most often 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sierra County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.