Crow Wing County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Crow Wing County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.5, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Crow Wing County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 77.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Crow Wing County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 14.27 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 0.57 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 66K.
Beyond physical exposure, Crow Wing County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Crow Wing County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 5 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2022.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Crow Wing County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 14.27 / yr | $8M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.57 / yr | $26M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $303K |
| Hail | Medium | 2.95 / yr | $688K |
| Lightning | Medium | 30.33 / yr | $555K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.22 / yr | $4K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.33 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 17.37 / yr | $91K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.53 / yr | $531K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.27 / yr | $87K |
| Drought | Low | 12.39 / yr | $89K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Crow Wing County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in August 2022. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Fire | Mn - By-Pass Fire - 05/31/2002 |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| August 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Thunderstorms, Winds, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Heat |
| June 1976 | Drought | Drought |
| August 1972 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Crow Wing County?
Crow Wing County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Crow Wing County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $8M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $26M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Crow Wing County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Crow Wing County ranks #10 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Crow Wing County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Crow Wing County since 1965, most often 5 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in August 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Crow Wing County's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.