Hennepin County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 98th
Hennepin County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 98.3, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $456M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Hennepin County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 98.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 98th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Hennepin County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $102M in expected annual loss and about 8.95 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $31M in expected annual loss and about 6.41 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $83M in expected annual loss and about 0.46 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $456M in expected annual loss for a population of 1.28M.
Beyond physical exposure, Hennepin County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Hennepin County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Hennepin County ranks #1 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 8.95 / yr | $102M |
| Hail | Very High | 6.41 / yr | $31M |
| Tornado | Very High | 0.46 / yr | $83M |
| Heat Wave | High | 6.68 / yr | $39M |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 4.57 / yr | $9M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.54 / yr | $188M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 16.58 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | High | 35.98 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.22 / yr | $27K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.49 / yr | $475K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $309K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $325K |
| Drought | Low | 2.94 / yr | $84K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hennepin County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Severe Storm (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| March 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| August 2007 | Other | Bridge Collapse |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hennepin County?
Hennepin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.3 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hennepin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $102M EAL), Hail (Very High, $31M EAL), Tornado (Very High, $83M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hennepin County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Hennepin County ranks #1 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hennepin County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Hennepin County since 1965, most often 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hennepin County's $456M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.