Olmsted County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 82th
Olmsted County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 82.3, 82th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $94M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Olmsted County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 82.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 82nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $17M in expected annual loss and about 10.05 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 0.46 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $56M in expected annual loss and about 1.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $94M in expected annual loss for a population of 162K.
Beyond physical exposure, Olmsted County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Olmsted County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 4 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Olmsted County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 10.05 / yr | $17M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.46 / yr | $13M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.43 / yr | $56M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.69 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 19.63 / yr | $474K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.20 / yr | $17K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.42 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.65 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.61 / yr | $227K |
| Drought | Low | 8.11 / yr | $448K |
| Lightning | Low | 37.42 / yr | $527K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $37K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Olmsted County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Severe Storm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| October 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| October 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 1998 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Olmsted County?
Olmsted County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 82.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 82th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Olmsted County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $17M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $13M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $56M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Olmsted County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Olmsted County ranks #8 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Olmsted County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Olmsted County since 1965, most often 4 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Olmsted County's $94M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.