Itasca County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 77th
Itasca County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 76.7, 77th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Itasca County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 76.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 77th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 17.37 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.00 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $13K in expected annual loss and about 0.72 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 45K.
Beyond physical exposure, Itasca County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Itasca County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 6 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2024.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Itasca County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 17.37 / yr | $13M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.00 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.72 / yr | $13K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 0.83 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 28.40 / yr | $552K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.39 / yr | $14M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 18.35 / yr | $79K |
| Hail | Low | 1.46 / yr | $266K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $29K |
| Drought | Low | 12.42 / yr | $55K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.37 / yr | $384K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $14K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Itasca County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Flood (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes |
| July 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Winds, and Flooding |
| August 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Thunderstorms, Winds, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Heat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Itasca County?
Itasca County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 76.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 77th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Itasca County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $13M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Landslide (Low, $13K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Itasca County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Itasca County ranks #11 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Itasca County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Itasca County since 1966, most often 6 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Itasca County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.