Scott County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 77th
Scott County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 76.6, 77th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $66M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Scott County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 76.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 77th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 4.74 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 0.30 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 6.46 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $66M in expected annual loss for a population of 151K.
Beyond physical exposure, Scott County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Scott County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 9 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Scott County ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 4.74 / yr | $13M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.30 / yr | $12M |
| Hail | Medium | 6.46 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 9.53 / yr | $7M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.32 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.04 / yr | $27M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 17.47 / yr | $194K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.13 / yr | $6K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.44 / yr | $196K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $96K |
| Lightning | Low | 37.36 / yr | $449K |
| Drought | Low | 3.32 / yr | $62K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $18K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Scott County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (9), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 1998 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Scott County?
Scott County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 76.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 77th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Scott County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $13M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $12M EAL), Hail (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Scott County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Scott County ranks #12 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Scott County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Scott County since 1965, most often 9 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Scott County's $66M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.