Otter Tail County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Otter Tail County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.4, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $38M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Otter Tail County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 79.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 20.43 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 15.13 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $38M in expected annual loss for a population of 60K.
Beyond physical exposure, Otter Tail County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Otter Tail County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Otter Tail County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 20.43 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | High | 15.13 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.47 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 1.31 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.32 / yr | $21M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.56 / yr | $19K |
| Hail | Medium | 3.76 / yr | $887K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $349K |
| Drought | Low | 2.27 / yr | $165K |
| Lightning | Low | 30.86 / yr | $208K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.27 / yr | $236K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.08 / yr | $48K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Otter Tail County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Severe Storm (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| April 1997 | Flood | Severe Flooding, High Winds,Severe Storms |
| January 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| August 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Thunderstorms, Winds, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Heat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Otter Tail County?
Otter Tail County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Otter Tail County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $7M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Otter Tail County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Otter Tail County ranks #9 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Otter Tail County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Otter Tail County since 1965, most often 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Otter Tail County's $38M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.