Knox County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY

Low

Composite Risk Score

74.7

National percentile: 75th

Knox County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.7, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Knox County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 74.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $32K in expected annual loss and about 1.21 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $396K in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 30K.

Beyond physical exposure, Knox County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

The federal record bears this out: Knox County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 17 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.

Among 120 Kentucky counties, Knox County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $20M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 30K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $8M/yr
Medium $32K/yr
Low $396K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Cold Wave High 0.79 / yr$8M
Landslide Medium 1.21 / yr$32K
Wildfire Low 0.02 / yr$396K
Winter Weather Medium 13.63 / yr$140K
Riverine Flood Low 2.11 / yr$8M
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$469K
Strong Wind Medium 5.57 / yr$452K
Tornado Low 0.12 / yr$1M
Lightning Medium 54.38 / yr$201K
Hail Low 3.19 / yr$218K
Heat Wave Low 2.58 / yr$288K
Hurricane Very Low 0.02 / yr$16K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr$147
Ice Storm Very Low 0.16 / yr$14K
Drought Very Low 9.09 / yr$2K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Knox County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Flood (11), Snowstorm (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
May 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
February 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
February 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides
July 2024Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides
April 2021FloodSevere, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
April 2020Severe StormSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19

Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Knox County?

Knox County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Knox County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $8M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $32K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $396K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Knox County compare to other Kentucky counties?

Knox County ranks #16 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Knox County had?

FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Knox County since 1967, most often 17 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Knox County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.