Knox County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Knox County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.7, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Knox County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 74.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $32K in expected annual loss and about 1.21 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $396K in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 30K.
Beyond physical exposure, Knox County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Knox County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 17 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Knox County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 0.79 / yr | $8M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.21 / yr | $32K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.02 / yr | $396K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 13.63 / yr | $140K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.11 / yr | $8M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $469K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.57 / yr | $452K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.12 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 54.38 / yr | $201K |
| Hail | Low | 3.19 / yr | $218K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.58 / yr | $288K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $147 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $14K |
| Drought | Very Low | 9.09 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Knox County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Flood (11), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Knox County?
Knox County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Knox County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $8M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $32K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $396K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Knox County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Knox County ranks #16 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Knox County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Knox County since 1967, most often 17 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Knox County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.