Madison County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Madison County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.8, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Madison County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 74.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 51.78 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 6.41 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $318K in expected annual loss and about 10.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 93K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Madison County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 11 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Madison County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 51.78 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.41 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 10.89 / yr | $318K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.20 / yr | $6M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.05 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.33 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.93 / yr | $18M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.78 / yr | $277K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.53 / yr | $658K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $57K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $83K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $69 |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.77 / yr | $5K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $318K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Madison County ranks #15 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1972, most often 11 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.