Northwest Arctic Borough, Alaska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 55th
Northwest Arctic Borough faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 54.6, 55th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Northwest Arctic Borough at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 54.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 55th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Northwest Arctic Borough's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 9.76 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $19K in expected annual loss and about 0.64 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $107K in expected annual loss and about 21.70 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Northwest Arctic Borough has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Northwest Arctic Borough has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1994, including 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong (flood), declared in October 2025.
Among 30 Alaska counties, Northwest Arctic Borough ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 9.76 / yr | $9M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.64 / yr | $19K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.70 / yr | $107K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.03 / yr | $343K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $69K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 16.07 / yr | $9K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $302K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Northwest Arctic Borough has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1994, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong in October 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Biological (2), Flood (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong |
| January 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Fall Storm, Tidal Surges, and Flooding |
| November 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Tidal Surges and Flooding |
| September 1994 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Northwest Arctic Borough?
Northwest Arctic Borough has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 54.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 55th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Northwest Arctic Borough?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $9M EAL), Landslide (Low, $19K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $107K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Northwest Arctic Borough compare to other Alaska counties?
Northwest Arctic Borough ranks #10 of 30 Alaska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Northwest Arctic Borough had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Northwest Arctic Borough since 1994, most often 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong, declared in October 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Northwest Arctic Borough's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.