Bethel Census Area, Alaska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 44th
Bethel Census Area faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 44.3, 44th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Bethel Census Area at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 44.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 44th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 4.54 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $237K in expected annual loss and about 11.06 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $372K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bethel Census Area has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Bethel Census Area has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 9 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong (flood), declared in October 2025.
Among 30 Alaska counties, Bethel Census Area ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 4.54 / yr | $7M |
| Winter Weather | High | 11.06 / yr | $237K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $372K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.03 / yr | $8K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $158K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $4 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $335 |
| Lightning | Low | 21.30 / yr | $59K |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $54K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $759K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $783 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $189 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $82 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bethel Census Area has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong in October 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (9), Severe Storm (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong |
| August 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Flooding, and Landslides |
| August 2022 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| December 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Ice Jam and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bethel Census Area?
Bethel Census Area has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 44.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 44th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bethel Census Area?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $7M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $237K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $372K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bethel Census Area compare to other Alaska counties?
Bethel Census Area ranks #11 of 30 Alaska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bethel Census Area had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Bethel Census Area since 1989, most often 9 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong, declared in October 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bethel Census Area's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.