Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, Alaska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 57th
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.0, 57th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area is low, with a National Risk Index score of 57.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 57th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Southeast Fairbanks Census Area has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Southeast Fairbanks Census Area has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Flooding (flood), declared in August 2023.
Among 30 Alaska counties, Southeast Fairbanks Census Area ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $5M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.07 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.05 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 28.21 / yr | $23K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.94 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 16.13 / yr | $77K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 43.30 / yr | $26K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $793K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $306 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $121 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| August 2022 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| November 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| June 2009 | Flood | Flooding and Ice Jams |
| December 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| August 2004 | Fire | Ak-Bolgen Creek Fire-08-10-2004 |
| November 2002 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Southeast Fairbanks Census Area?
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 57th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $5M EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Southeast Fairbanks Census Area compare to other Alaska counties?
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area ranks #9 of 30 Alaska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Southeast Fairbanks Census Area had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Southeast Fairbanks Census Area since 1989, most often 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Flooding, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.