Juneau City and Borough, Alaska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AK
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 12th
Juneau City and Borough faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 11.5, 12th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Juneau City and Borough at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 11.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 12th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $185K in expected annual loss and about 10.97 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $475K in expected annual loss and about 19.88 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.17 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 32K.
Beyond physical exposure, Juneau City and Borough has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Juneau City and Borough has received 3 federal disaster declarations since 2020, including 1 for flood events and 1 for mud/landslide events. The most recent was Flooding (flood), declared in October 2024.
Among 30 Alaska counties, Juneau City and Borough ranks #22 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 10.97 / yr | $185K |
| Winter Weather | High | 19.88 / yr | $475K |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.17 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.02 / yr | $2M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.30 / yr | $288K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $10K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $154K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 3.88 / yr | $20K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Juneau City and Borough has received 3 federal disaster declarations since 2020, most recently Flooding in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (1), Mud/Landslide (1), Biological (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Flood | Flooding |
| February 2021 | Mud/Landslide | Severe Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Juneau City and Borough?
Juneau City and Borough has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 11.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 12th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Juneau City and Borough?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $185K EAL), Winter Weather (High, $475K EAL), Avalanche (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Juneau City and Borough compare to other Alaska counties?
Juneau City and Borough ranks #22 of 30 Alaska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Juneau City and Borough had?
FEMA records 3 federal disaster declarations for Juneau City and Borough since 2020, most often 1 for flood events and 1 for mud/landslide events. The most recent was Flooding, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Juneau City and Borough's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.