Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AK
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 6th
Lake and Peninsula Borough faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 6.3, 6th national percentile), driven primarily by volcanic activity and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lake and Peninsula Borough at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 6.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 6th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at Low risk — $9K in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $919K in expected annual loss and about 0.15 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Low risk — $12K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 1K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lake and Peninsula Borough has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Lake and Peninsula Borough has received 3 federal disaster declarations since 2000, including 2 for biological events and 1 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 30 Alaska counties, Lake and Peninsula Borough ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Volcanic Activity | Low | 0.06 / yr | $9K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.15 / yr | $919K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.07 / yr | $12K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.77 / yr | $3K |
| Tsunami | Low | 0.31 / yr | $721K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.29 / yr | $296K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.12 / yr | $18K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $283 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 8.46 / yr | $1K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lake and Peninsula Borough has received 3 federal disaster declarations since 2000, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Severe Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Avalanches |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lake and Peninsula Borough?
Lake and Peninsula Borough has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 6.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 6th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lake and Peninsula Borough?
The three highest-rated hazards are Volcanic Activity (Low, $9K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $919K EAL), Avalanche (Low, $12K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lake and Peninsula Borough compare to other Alaska counties?
Lake and Peninsula Borough ranks #23 of 30 Alaska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lake and Peninsula Borough had?
FEMA records 3 federal disaster declarations for Lake and Peninsula Borough since 2000, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lake and Peninsula Borough's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.