Rockbridge County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 33th
Rockbridge County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 33.3, 33th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Rockbridge County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 33.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 33rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $59K in expected annual loss and about 1.50 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $532K in expected annual loss and about 42.55 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Low risk — $5K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 23K.
Beyond physical exposure, Rockbridge County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Rockbridge County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 6 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Rockbridge County ranks #58 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.50 / yr | $59K |
| Lightning | Medium | 42.55 / yr | $532K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $460K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $67K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.96 / yr | $7M |
| Drought | Low | 3.66 / yr | $69K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.89 / yr | $360K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $116K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 11.73 / yr | $33K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.10 / yr | $422K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.68 / yr | $92K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $135K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.90 / yr | $8K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $15K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Rockbridge County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Flood (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| July 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2003 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rockbridge County?
Rockbridge County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 33.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 33th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Rockbridge County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $59K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $532K EAL), Avalanche (Low, $5K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Rockbridge County compare to other Virginia counties?
Rockbridge County ranks #58 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Rockbridge County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Rockbridge County since 1969, most often 6 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rockbridge County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.