Lancaster County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 32th
Lancaster County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 32.3, 32th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lancaster County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 32.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 32nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lancaster County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.50 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.17 events per year; and coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Medium risk — $394K in expected annual loss and about 3.69 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lancaster County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lancaster County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 12 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Lancaster County ranks #60 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 3.50 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.17 / yr | $3M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.69 / yr | $394K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.04 / yr | $51K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $132K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.40 / yr | $221K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 5.11 / yr | $96K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $139 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.89 / yr | $224K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $191K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 39.95 / yr | $28K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.84 / yr | $6K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.98 / yr | $24K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lancaster County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Snowstorm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2018 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lancaster County?
Lancaster County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 32.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 32th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lancaster County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL), Coastal Flood (Medium, $394K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lancaster County compare to other Virginia counties?
Lancaster County ranks #60 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lancaster County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Lancaster County since 1972, most often 12 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lancaster County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.