Nelson County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 34th
Nelson County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 34.1, 34th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Nelson County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 34.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 34th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 1.30 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $490K in expected annual loss and about 5.48 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $390K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Nelson County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Nelson County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 8 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Nelson County ranks #57 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 1.30 / yr | $8K |
| Drought | Medium | 5.48 / yr | $490K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.07 / yr | $390K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.25 / yr | $7M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $31K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $171K |
| Lightning | Low | 41.98 / yr | $111K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.92 / yr | $246K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.08 / yr | $93K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.94 / yr | $19K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $18K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.53 / yr | $69K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $183K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.89 / yr | $113K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Nelson County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Nelson County?
Nelson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 34.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 34th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Nelson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $8K EAL), Drought (Medium, $490K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $390K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Nelson County compare to other Virginia counties?
Nelson County ranks #57 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Nelson County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Nelson County since 1969, most often 8 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Nelson County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.