Roanoke City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 73th
Roanoke City faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 72.9, 73th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Roanoke City is low, with a National Risk Index score of 72.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 73rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.38 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 1.64 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $591K in expected annual loss and about 44.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 100K.
Beyond physical exposure, Roanoke City has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Roanoke City has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 4 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Roanoke City ranks #13 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 3.38 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.64 / yr | $19M |
| Lightning | Medium | 44.11 / yr | $591K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $872K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $727K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.53 / yr | $120K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $2K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.89 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 4.13 / yr | $182K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.55 / yr | $35K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.01 / yr | $475K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.53 / yr | $106K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $22 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.06 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Roanoke City has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (4), Severe Storm (4), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Roanoke City?
Roanoke City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 72.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 73th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Roanoke City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $19M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $591K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Roanoke City compare to other Virginia counties?
Roanoke City ranks #13 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Roanoke City had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Roanoke City since 1972, most often 4 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Roanoke City's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.