Rockingham County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Rockingham County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.0, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Rockingham County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 75.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $38K in expected annual loss and about 1.31 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 2.36 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 84K.
Beyond physical exposure, Rockingham County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Rockingham County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Rockingham County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 1.31 / yr | $38K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.36 / yr | $26M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.05 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 3.54 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 38.66 / yr | $669K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.10 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.15 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $691K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $119K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 12.70 / yr | $101K |
| Hail | Low | 2.14 / yr | $367K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.21 / yr | $708K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.71 / yr | $37K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.21 / yr | $498K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Rockingham County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Flood (5), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2011 | Fire | Coffman Fire |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2003 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rockingham County?
Rockingham County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Rockingham County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $38K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $26M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Rockingham County compare to other Virginia counties?
Rockingham County ranks #11 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Rockingham County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Rockingham County since 1972, most often 5 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rockingham County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.