Alexandria City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Alexandria City faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.7, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $40M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Alexandria City carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 73.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 8.04 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 6.34 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 1.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $40M in expected annual loss for a population of 159K.
Beyond physical exposure, Alexandria City has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Alexandria City has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Alexandria City ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 8.04 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.34 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.43 / yr | $26M |
| Lightning | Medium | 41.46 / yr | $961K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.10 / yr | $256K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.10 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 3.76 / yr | $424K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.76 / yr | $408K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.48 / yr | $91K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $418 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.26 / yr | $404K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.29 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Alexandria City has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| November 2011 | Severe Storm | The Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Alexandria City?
Alexandria City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Alexandria City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $26M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Alexandria City compare to other Virginia counties?
Alexandria City ranks #12 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Alexandria City had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Alexandria City since 1972, most often 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Alexandria City's $40M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.