Middlesex County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 24th
Middlesex County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 23.8, 24th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Middlesex County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 23.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 24th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Middlesex County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.18 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $606K in expected annual loss and about 2.57 events per year; and coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Low risk — $287K in expected annual loss and about 3.69 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Middlesex County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Middlesex County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 11 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Middlesex County ranks #71 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.18 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 2.57 / yr | $606K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.69 / yr | $287K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.13 / yr | $48K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.13 / yr | $276K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $91K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 5.27 / yr | $89K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $185 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $228K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $163K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.99 / yr | $38K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 41.12 / yr | $38K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.95 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Middlesex County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (11), Snowstorm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2018 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Middlesex County?
Middlesex County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 23.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 24th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Middlesex County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL), Drought (Medium, $606K EAL), Coastal Flood (Low, $287K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Middlesex County compare to other Virginia counties?
Middlesex County ranks #71 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Middlesex County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Middlesex County since 1972, most often 11 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Middlesex County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.