Grayson County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 25th
Grayson County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 24.7, 25th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Grayson County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 24.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 25th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $47K in expected annual loss and about 1.27 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 4.84 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $208K in expected annual loss and about 9.81 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grayson County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Grayson County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 5 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Grayson County ranks #69 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.27 / yr | $47K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.84 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Low | 9.81 / yr | $208K |
| Lightning | Low | 47.65 / yr | $202K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $80K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $25K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $256 |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.61 / yr | $40K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $109K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.25 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 19.27 / yr | $19K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.61 / yr | $150K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $151K |
| Hail | Very Low | 4.02 / yr | $39K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grayson County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (4), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2018 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grayson County?
Grayson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 24.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 25th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grayson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $47K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Drought (Low, $208K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grayson County compare to other Virginia counties?
Grayson County ranks #69 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grayson County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Grayson County since 1976, most often 5 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grayson County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.