Harrisonburg City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 27th
Harrisonburg City faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 26.6, 27th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Harrisonburg City carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 26.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 27th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $639K in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $621K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $775K in expected annual loss and about 3.51 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 52K.
Beyond physical exposure, Harrisonburg City has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Harrisonburg City has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Harrisonburg City ranks #67 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $639K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $621K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.51 / yr | $775K |
| Lightning | Medium | 38.44 / yr | $318K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.68 / yr | $55K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.86 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.16 / yr | $249K |
| Hail | Low | 2.33 / yr | $163K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $227 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.97 / yr | $22K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $319K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 2.16 / yr | $173K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 3.60 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Harrisonburg City has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2003 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
| September 1996 | Hurricane | Hurricane Fran and Associated Severe Storm Cond |
| January 1996 | Flood | Flooding, High Winds, and Wind Driven Rain |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Harrisonburg City?
Harrisonburg City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 26.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 27th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Harrisonburg City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $639K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $621K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $775K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Harrisonburg City compare to other Virginia counties?
Harrisonburg City ranks #67 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Harrisonburg City had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Harrisonburg City since 1972, most often 5 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Harrisonburg City's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.