Orange County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 26th
Orange County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 25.6, 26th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Orange County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 25.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 26th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Orange County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.51 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $661K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 36K.
Beyond physical exposure, Orange County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Orange County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Orange County ranks #68 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 3.51 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $661K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.69 / yr | $636K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.75 / yr | $337K |
| Lightning | Low | 40.59 / yr | $207K |
| Hail | Low | 3.24 / yr | $215K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.93 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $527 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.02 / yr | $34K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $482K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.56 / yr | $26K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $81K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Orange County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| November 2011 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Orange County?
Orange County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 25.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 26th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Orange County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $661K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Orange County compare to other Virginia counties?
Orange County ranks #68 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Orange County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Orange County since 1972, most often 6 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Orange County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.