Carroll County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Carroll County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.1, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Carroll County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 45.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $57K in expected annual loss and about 1.33 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 3.94 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $232K in expected annual loss and about 6.58 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 29K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Carroll County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 3 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Carroll County ranks #45 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.33 / yr | $57K |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.94 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | Low | 6.58 / yr | $232K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $163K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.70 / yr | $79K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $762 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $46K |
| Lightning | Low | 47.91 / yr | $157K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $169K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.47 / yr | $36K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.89 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | Low | 4.48 / yr | $113K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.87 / yr | $237K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.09 / yr | $365K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Hurricane (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $57K EAL), Cold Wave (High, $5M EAL), Drought (Low, $232K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other Virginia counties?
Carroll County ranks #45 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1977, most often 3 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.