Culpeper County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 46th
Culpeper County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 46.2, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Culpeper County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 46.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.71 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $548K in expected annual loss and about 40.70 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $657K in expected annual loss and about 0.09 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 53K.
Beyond physical exposure, Culpeper County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Culpeper County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Culpeper County ranks #43 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 2.71 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 40.70 / yr | $548K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.09 / yr | $657K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $622K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.00 / yr | $10M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.69 / yr | $598K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.80 / yr | $742K |
| Hail | Low | 3.45 / yr | $210K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.33 / yr | $743 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.37 / yr | $48K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.21 / yr | $561K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.63 / yr | $32K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.26 / yr | $44K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Culpeper County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Severe Storm (5), Snowstorm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| November 2011 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Culpeper County?
Culpeper County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 46.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Culpeper County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $548K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $657K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Culpeper County compare to other Virginia counties?
Culpeper County ranks #43 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Culpeper County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Culpeper County since 1972, most often 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Culpeper County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.