York County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
York County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 44.7, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $24M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates York County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 44.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.22 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $309K in expected annual loss and about 1.44 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 0.75 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $24M in expected annual loss for a population of 70K.
Beyond physical exposure, York County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: York County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 9 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, York County ranks #47 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.22 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.44 / yr | $309K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.75 / yr | $14M |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.69 / yr | $650K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $113K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $585K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.09 / yr | $702K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.90 / yr | $104K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.11 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Low | 41.58 / yr | $279K |
| Drought | Low | 2.28 / yr | $84K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $582 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.05 / yr | $200K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.45 / yr | $631K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.64 / yr | $453K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
York County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| September 2006 | Severe Storm | Tropical Depression Ernesto, Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2003 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for York County?
York County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 44.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in York County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $4M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $309K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $14M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does York County compare to other Virginia counties?
York County ranks #47 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has York County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for York County since 1972, most often 9 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. York County's $24M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.