Frederick County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Frederick County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 44.7, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Frederick County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 44.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $22K in expected annual loss and about 0.57 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $874K in expected annual loss and about 4.14 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 91K.
Beyond physical exposure, Frederick County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Frederick County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Frederick County ranks #46 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.57 / yr | $22K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 4.14 / yr | $874K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.26 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 13.14 / yr | $147K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.54 / yr | $13M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $633K |
| Hail | Low | 2.89 / yr | $523K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $105K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.04 / yr | $879K |
| Lightning | Low | 37.63 / yr | $297K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.18 / yr | $882K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $75 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $23K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.94 / yr | $169K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Frederick County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Snowstorm (4), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Frederick County?
Frederick County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 44.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Frederick County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $22K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $874K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Frederick County compare to other Virginia counties?
Frederick County ranks #46 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Frederick County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Frederick County since 1972, most often 6 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Frederick County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.