Frederick County
Virginia — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Frederick County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 44.7, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.57 / yr | $22K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 4.14 / yr | $874K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.26 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 13.14 / yr | $147K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.54 / yr | $13M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $633K |
| Hail | Low | 2.89 / yr | $523K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $105K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.04 / yr | $879K |
| Lightning | Low | 37.63 / yr | $297K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.18 / yr | $882K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $75 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $23K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.94 / yr | $169K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Frederick County?
Frederick County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 44.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Frederick County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $22K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $874K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Frederick County compare to other Virginia counties?
Frederick County ranks #46 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Frederick County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.