Buchanan County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 51th
Buchanan County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.6, 51th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Buchanan County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 50.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 51st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $112K in expected annual loss and about 1.69 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $133K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Buchanan County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Buchanan County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 8 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Buchanan County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.69 / yr | $112K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.01 / yr | $8K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $133K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.89 / yr | $9M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $162K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $33K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.65 / yr | $174K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.84 / yr | $17K |
| Lightning | Low | 48.57 / yr | $56K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $14K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.07 / yr | $21K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $41K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 5.25 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Buchanan County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (6), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene |
| September 2022 | Severe Storm | Flooding and Mudslides |
| October 2021 | Flood | Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Buchanan County?
Buchanan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 51th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Buchanan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $112K EAL), Avalanche (Low, $8K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $133K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Buchanan County compare to other Virginia counties?
Buchanan County ranks #35 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Buchanan County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Buchanan County since 1977, most often 8 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Buchanan County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.