Bedford County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA

Low

Composite Risk Score

51.2

National percentile: 51th

Bedford County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 51.2, 51th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Bedford County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 51.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 51st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Bedford County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $827K in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $554K in expected annual loss and about 43.11 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $583K in expected annual loss and about 6.04 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 79K.

Beyond physical exposure, Bedford County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

The federal record bears this out: Bedford County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 6 for severe storm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.

Among 133 Virginia counties, Bedford County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $18M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 79K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Low $827K/yr
Medium $554K/yr
Medium $583K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hurricane Low 0.06 / yr$827K
Lightning Medium 43.11 / yr$554K
Drought Medium 6.04 / yr$583K
Riverine Flood Low 1.57 / yr$13M
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$141K
Landslide Low 1.67 / yr$3K
Strong Wind Medium 3.22 / yr$796K
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$484K
Winter Weather Low 9.11 / yr$89K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr$1K
Ice Storm Low 1.50 / yr$67K
Cold Wave Low 1.37 / yr$512K
Heat Wave Very Low 1.00 / yr$153K
Hail Very Low 3.59 / yr$109K
Tornado Very Low 0.15 / yr$389K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Bedford County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Hurricane (6), Snowstorm (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
April 2025Severe StormSevere Winter Storms and Flooding
October 2024Tropical StormTropical Storm Helene
September 2024Tropical StormPost-Tropical Cyclone Helene
May 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
September 2018HurricaneHurricane Florence
October 2012HurricaneHurricane Sandy
July 2012Severe StormSevere Storms and Straight-Line Winds

Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bedford County?

Bedford County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 51.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 51th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Bedford County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $827K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $554K EAL), Drought (Medium, $583K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Bedford County compare to other Virginia counties?

Bedford County ranks #34 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Bedford County had?

FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Bedford County since 1969, most often 6 for severe storm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bedford County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.