Lynchburg City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Lynchburg City faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 49.3, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lynchburg City is low, with a National Risk Index score of 49.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.10 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $820K in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $537K in expected annual loss and about 43.08 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 79K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lynchburg City has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Lynchburg City has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Lynchburg City ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.10 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $820K |
| Lightning | Medium | 43.08 / yr | $537K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $909K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.11 / yr | $4K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.21 / yr | $10M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.66 / yr | $57K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.27 / yr | $71K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.89 / yr | $275K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.01 / yr | $535K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.14 / yr | $103K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $168K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 5.85 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lynchburg City has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Severe Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2003 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
| February 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| September 1996 | Hurricane | Hurricane Fran and Associated Severe Storm Cond |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lynchburg City?
Lynchburg City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 49.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lynchburg City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $820K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $537K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lynchburg City compare to other Virginia counties?
Lynchburg City ranks #37 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lynchburg City had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Lynchburg City since 1972, most often 5 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lynchburg City's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.