Real County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 43th
Real County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 42.6, 43th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Real County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 42.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 43rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Real County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $118K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 2.75 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very Low risk — $30K in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Real County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Real County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Real County ranks #142 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $118K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.75 / yr | $7M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $30K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.54 / yr | $615 |
| Drought | Low | 138.00 / yr | $44K |
| Lightning | Low | 44.08 / yr | $69K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.32 / yr | $13K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.95 / yr | $48K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.58 / yr | $34K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $109K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $103K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $25K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $199 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Real County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Severe Storm (3), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Real County?
Real County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 42.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 43th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Real County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $118K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $7M EAL), Hurricane (Very Low, $30K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Real County compare to other Texas counties?
Real County ranks #142 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Real County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Real County since 1993, most often 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Real County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.