McMullen County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 1th
McMullen County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 0.6, 1th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $875K.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in McMullen County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 0.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 1st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very Low risk — $116K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $56K in expected annual loss and about 79.81 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $12K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $875K in expected annual loss for a population of 600.
Beyond physical exposure, McMullen County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: McMullen County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 7 for hurricane events and 2 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, McMullen County ranks #251 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $116K |
| Drought | Low | 79.81 / yr | $56K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.89 / yr | $168K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $6K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.38 / yr | $36K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 8.63 / yr | $17K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $49K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $4 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $12K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $396K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $424 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 41.24 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McMullen County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (7), Severe Ice Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McMullen County?
McMullen County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 0.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 1th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McMullen County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Very Low, $116K EAL), Drought (Low, $56K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $12K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McMullen County compare to other Texas counties?
McMullen County ranks #251 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McMullen County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for McMullen County since 1967, most often 7 for hurricane events and 2 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McMullen County's $875K EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.