Jeff Davis County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 3th
Jeff Davis County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 2.9, 3th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Jeff Davis County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 2.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 3rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $844K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $506 in expected annual loss and about 0.70 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very Low risk — $198 in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 2K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jeff Davis County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Jeff Davis County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including 10 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Jeff Davis County ranks #242 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $844K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.70 / yr | $506 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $198 |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.32 / yr | $28K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $25K |
| Drought | Very Low | 115.56 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 7.12 / yr | $48K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 5.25 / yr | $12K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $35K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 58.39 / yr | $28K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.75 / yr | $833K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $23K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $21K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $19K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jeff Davis County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1998, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (10), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2018 | Fire | Mcdannald Fire |
| April 2012 | Fire | Livermore Ranch Fire Complex |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2011 | Fire | Tejano Canyon Fire |
| April 2011 | Fire | Rockhouse Fire |
| June 2008 | Fire | Hughes Ranch Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jeff Davis County?
Jeff Davis County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 2.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 3th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jeff Davis County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $844K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $506 EAL), Avalanche (Very Low, $198 EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jeff Davis County compare to other Texas counties?
Jeff Davis County ranks #242 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jeff Davis County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Jeff Davis County since 1998, most often 10 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jeff Davis County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.