Jack County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 11th
Jack County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 11.4, 11th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Jack County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 11.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 11th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Jack County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $835K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $747K in expected annual loss and about 61.65 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $587K in expected annual loss and about 12.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jack County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Jack County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 6 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Jack County ranks #211 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $835K |
| Drought | Medium | 61.65 / yr | $747K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 12.89 / yr | $587K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $2K |
| Hail | Low | 8.68 / yr | $279K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.73 / yr | $961K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.16 / yr | $351K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $15K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.77 / yr | $31K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $203K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 5.21 / yr | $12K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.82 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 50.30 / yr | $15K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jack County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Severe Storm (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| April 2011 | Fire | Bryson Fire Complex |
| March 2011 | Fire | Enmin Fire |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jack County?
Jack County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 11.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 11th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jack County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $835K EAL), Drought (Medium, $747K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $587K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jack County compare to other Texas counties?
Jack County ranks #211 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jack County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Jack County since 1989, most often 6 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jack County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.