Hill County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 73th
Hill County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.0, 73th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Hill County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 73.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 73rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Hill County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.74 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.82 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $401K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 36K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hill County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Hill County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 7 for severe storm events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Hill County ranks #73 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 0.74 / yr | $10M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.82 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $401K |
| Drought | Medium | 39.57 / yr | $821K |
| Hail | Medium | 6.72 / yr | $650K |
| Lightning | Medium | 52.61 / yr | $534K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.87 / yr | $265K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 16.26 / yr | $936K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.12 / yr | $7K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $302K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.13 / yr | $541K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.32 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $65K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.26 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hill County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Fire (5), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hill County?
Hill County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 73th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hill County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $10M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $401K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hill County compare to other Texas counties?
Hill County ranks #73 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hill County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Hill County since 1968, most often 7 for severe storm events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hill County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.