Hardeman County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

8.7

National percentile: 9th

Hardeman County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 8.7, 9th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Hardeman County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 8.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 9th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $628K in expected annual loss and about 149.64 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $530K in expected annual loss and about 3.24 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $88K in expected annual loss and about 0.66 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.

Beyond physical exposure, Hardeman County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Hardeman County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 6 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.

Among 254 Texas counties, Hardeman County ranks #221 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $3M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 4K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $628K/yr
Medium $530K/yr
Medium $88K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Drought Medium 149.64 / yr$628K
Strong Wind Medium 3.24 / yr$530K
Ice Storm Medium 0.66 / yr$88K
Hail Low 7.65 / yr$244K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$57K
Tornado Low 0.47 / yr$395K
Heat Wave Very Low 11.16 / yr$104K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$22K
Winter Weather Very Low 6.84 / yr$12K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$4K
Landslide Very Low 0.11 / yr$54
Cold Wave Very Low 1.21 / yr$67K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.21 / yr$381K
Lightning Very Low 48.86 / yr$7K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Hardeman County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
August 2019FireCopper Breaks Fire
February 2016Severe StormSevere Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
July 2011FireWildfires
March 2008FireWildfires
January 2006FireExtreme Wildfire Threat
September 2005HurricaneHurricane Rita

Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hardeman County?

Hardeman County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 8.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 9th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Hardeman County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $628K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $530K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $88K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Hardeman County compare to other Texas counties?

Hardeman County ranks #221 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Hardeman County had?

FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Hardeman County since 1993, most often 6 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hardeman County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.