Goliad County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 23th
Goliad County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 22.6, 23th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Goliad County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 22.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 23rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Goliad County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $244K in expected annual loss and about 66.69 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $52K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Goliad County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Goliad County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 11 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Goliad County ranks #186 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.13 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Low | 66.69 / yr | $244K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $52K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.38 / yr | $432K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.68 / yr | $320K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 8.11 / yr | $105K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.31 / yr | $53K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 53.29 / yr | $48K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $9K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $16 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.16 / yr | $5K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $39K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Goliad County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (11), Flood (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
| August 2007 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dean |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Goliad County?
Goliad County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 22.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 23th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Goliad County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL), Drought (Low, $244K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $52K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Goliad County compare to other Texas counties?
Goliad County ranks #186 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Goliad County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Goliad County since 1967, most often 11 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Goliad County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.