Wilson County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Wilson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.0, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $60M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Wilson County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 80.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 1.16 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $545K in expected annual loss and about 5.63 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $60M in expected annual loss for a population of 148K.
Beyond physical exposure, Wilson County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Wilson County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 7 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Wilson County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.16 / yr | $9M |
| Winter Weather | High | 5.63 / yr | $545K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $6M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.45 / yr | $8M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.61 / yr | $31M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.40 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.68 / yr | $629K |
| Lightning | Medium | 58.90 / yr | $847K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.13 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.53 / yr | $906K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $39K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $31K |
| Drought | Low | 10.24 / yr | $41K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $427 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wilson County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Tornado (4), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wilson County?
Wilson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wilson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $9M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $545K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wilson County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Wilson County ranks #15 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wilson County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Wilson County since 1974, most often 7 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wilson County's $60M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.