Pickett County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 5th
Pickett County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 4.6, 5th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Pickett County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 4.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 5th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $891 in expected annual loss and about 0.49 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $466K in expected annual loss and about 1.26 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $32K in expected annual loss and about 9.74 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pickett County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Pickett County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 10 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Pickett County ranks #94 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.49 / yr | $891 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.26 / yr | $466K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.74 / yr | $32K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $16K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $76K |
| Lightning | Low | 56.06 / yr | $88K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.92 / yr | $74K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.37 / yr | $177K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $277K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.60 / yr | $12K |
| Drought | Very Low | 7.46 / yr | $2K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $899K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pickett County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Winter Storm (2), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| April 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Associated Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pickett County?
Pickett County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 4.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 5th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pickett County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Very Low, $891 EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $466K EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $32K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pickett County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Pickett County ranks #94 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pickett County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Pickett County since 1974, most often 10 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pickett County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.