Van Buren County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 3th
Van Buren County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 2.7, 3th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Van Buren County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 2.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 3rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $4K in expected annual loss and about 0.54 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $23K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $555K in expected annual loss and about 1.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Van Buren County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Van Buren County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 8 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Van Buren County ranks #95 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.54 / yr | $4K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $23K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $555K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $107K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.18 / yr | $468K |
| Drought | Very Low | 20.99 / yr | $18K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.58 / yr | $27K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 5.05 / yr | $148K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 60.07 / yr | $54K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.60 / yr | $7K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.37 / yr | $25K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Van Buren County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (5), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| March 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Van Buren County?
Van Buren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 2.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 3th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Van Buren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $4K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $23K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $555K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Van Buren County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Van Buren County ranks #95 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Van Buren County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Van Buren County since 1973, most often 8 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Van Buren County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.