McMinn County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 60th
McMinn County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 60.2, 60th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates McMinn County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 60.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 60th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $28K in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.78 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 53K.
Beyond physical exposure, McMinn County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: McMinn County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, McMinn County ranks #43 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.32 / yr | $28K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.78 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 58.81 / yr | $395K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.53 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.39 / yr | $8M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.42 / yr | $60K |
| Drought | Low | 21.98 / yr | $139K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $64K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $39K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.47 / yr | $67K |
| Hail | Low | 3.42 / yr | $175K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.68 / yr | $160K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McMinn County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Winter Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| March 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Associated Flooding |
| May 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McMinn County?
McMinn County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 60.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 60th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McMinn County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $4M EAL), Landslide (Low, $28K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McMinn County compare to other Tennessee counties?
McMinn County ranks #43 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McMinn County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for McMinn County since 1973, most often 6 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McMinn County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.