Lincoln County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 59th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.9, 59th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lincoln County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 58.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 59th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.55 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 6.76 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 35K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 7 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Lincoln County ranks #44 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Medium | 0.55 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.76 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.47 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 28.21 / yr | $419K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.84 / yr | $71K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.85 / yr | $105K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.46 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | Low | 60.76 / yr | $230K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $85K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.42 / yr | $291K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.59 / yr | $487 |
| Hail | Low | 4.21 / yr | $116K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (3), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Associated Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 59th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Lincoln County ranks #44 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1973, most often 7 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.