Marion County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Marion County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.2, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Marion County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 58.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Marion County's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.18 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.39 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $15K in expected annual loss and about 1.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 29K.
Beyond physical exposure, Marion County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Marion County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Marion County ranks #45 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.18 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.39 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.07 / yr | $15K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.00 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $651K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.16 / yr | $82K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.82 / yr | $8M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $67K |
| Drought | Low | 29.65 / yr | $140K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.76 / yr | $54K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $21K |
| Lightning | Low | 61.62 / yr | $105K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.63 / yr | $95K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.82 / yr | $58K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Marion County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (6), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| August 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marion County?
Marion County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Marion County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL), Landslide (Low, $15K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Marion County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Marion County ranks #45 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Marion County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Marion County since 1973, most often 9 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marion County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.