Franklin County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Franklin County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.5, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Franklin County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 57.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Franklin County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.63 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.51 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 43K.
Beyond physical exposure, Franklin County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Franklin County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Franklin County ranks #47 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.63 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.51 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.32 / yr | $134K |
| Drought | Medium | 27.42 / yr | $472K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.94 / yr | $781K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.29 / yr | $9M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.90 / yr | $113K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $59K |
| Lightning | Low | 61.26 / yr | $192K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.89 / yr | $229K |
| Hail | Low | 4.07 / yr | $171K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $377 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Franklin County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Winter Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Associated Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and High Winds |
| January 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Franklin County?
Franklin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Franklin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Franklin County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Franklin County ranks #47 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Franklin County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Franklin County since 1973, most often 6 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Franklin County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.