Grundy County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 34th
Grundy County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 34.3, 34th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Grundy County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 34.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 34th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.21 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.29 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $338K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 13K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grundy County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Grundy County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Grundy County ranks #70 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.21 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.29 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $338K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.55 / yr | $2K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.79 / yr | $50K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.57 / yr | $379K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $39K |
| Drought | Low | 21.45 / yr | $97K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $27K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.75 / yr | $24K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.71 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Low | 61.16 / yr | $54K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.80 / yr | $52K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grundy County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (3), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| October 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grundy County?
Grundy County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 34.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 34th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grundy County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $338K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grundy County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Grundy County ranks #70 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grundy County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Grundy County since 1973, most often 9 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grundy County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.