Polk County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 31th
Polk County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 31.2, 31th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Polk County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 31.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 31st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $159K in expected annual loss and about 1.73 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $187K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $560K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 18K.
Beyond physical exposure, Polk County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Polk County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 12 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Polk County ranks #72 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.73 / yr | $159K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $187K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $560K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.88 / yr | $641K |
| Lightning | Low | 60.80 / yr | $161K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.22 / yr | $853K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $34K |
| Drought | Low | 31.05 / yr | $58K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.43 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.73 / yr | $453K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.60 / yr | $24K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.93 / yr | $77K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.91 / yr | $37K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.70 / yr | $10K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Polk County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Flood (3), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Polk County?
Polk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 31.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 31th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Polk County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $159K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $187K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $560K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Polk County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Polk County ranks #72 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Polk County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Polk County since 1974, most often 12 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Polk County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.