Macon County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

34.6

National percentile: 35th

Macon County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 34.6, 35th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Macon County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 34.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 35th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $749K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $776K in expected annual loss and about 6.10 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.22 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.

Beyond physical exposure, Macon County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Macon County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 11 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.

Among 95 Tennessee counties, Macon County ranks #69 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $9M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 25K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Low $749K/yr
Medium $776K/yr
Medium $2M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$749K
Strong Wind Medium 6.10 / yr$776K
Tornado Medium 0.22 / yr$2M
Cold Wave Low 1.16 / yr$1M
Drought Low 3.88 / yr$261K
Winter Weather Medium 6.32 / yr$74K
Ice Storm Low 0.72 / yr$101K
Landslide Very Low 0.73 / yr$1K
Hail Low 3.22 / yr$203K
Lightning Low 56.13 / yr$164K
Heat Wave Low 4.11 / yr$211K
Riverine Flood Very Low 1.14 / yr$3M
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$8K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$3K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Macon County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (3), Winter Storm (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
February 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
June 2024Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
May 2023Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado
April 2023Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
September 2010Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
May 2010Severe StormSevere Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes

Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Macon County?

Macon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 34.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 35th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Macon County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $749K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $776K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Macon County compare to other Tennessee counties?

Macon County ranks #69 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Macon County had?

FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Macon County since 1969, most often 11 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Macon County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.