Roger Mills County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

23.2

National percentile: 23th

Roger Mills County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 23.2, 23th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Roger Mills County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 23.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 23rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Roger Mills County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 97.82 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $723K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $159K in expected annual loss and about 0.83 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.

Beyond physical exposure, Roger Mills County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

The federal record bears this out: Roger Mills County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 14 for severe storm events and 10 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was 840 Road Fire (fire), declared in March 2025.

Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Roger Mills County ranks #70 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $5M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 3K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $1M/yr
Medium $723K/yr
Medium $159K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Drought High 97.82 / yr$1M
Wildfire Medium 0.01 / yr$723K
Ice Storm Medium 0.83 / yr$159K
Landslide Low 0.45 / yr$4K
Strong Wind Medium 3.46 / yr$487K
Winter Weather Low 9.00 / yr$43K
Hail Low 7.82 / yr$168K
Cold Wave Low 2.68 / yr$393K
Tornado Low 0.89 / yr$490K
Heat Wave Very Low 6.11 / yr$54K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$15K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$3K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.36 / yr$819K
Lightning Very Low 48.05 / yr$16K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Roger Mills County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently 840 Road Fire in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Severe Ice Storm (10), Fire (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
March 2025Fire840 Road Fire
June 2024Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
December 2020Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2019Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
June 2018FireWildfires
July 2017TornadoSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 32 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Roger Mills County?

Roger Mills County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 23.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 23th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Roger Mills County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $723K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $159K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Roger Mills County compare to other Oklahoma counties?

Roger Mills County ranks #70 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Roger Mills County had?

FEMA records 32 federal disaster declarations for Roger Mills County since 1990, most often 14 for severe storm events and 10 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was 840 Road Fire, declared in March 2025.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Roger Mills County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.